Historical study
Do two venues settle the same event the same way?
No. One asks who is inaugurated, the other who wins the election.
5 confirmed pairs were checked, 5 with both settlement texts available, and 5 settle on a different fact than they appear to. One venue pays on who is next inaugurated, the other on who wins the election. Those are usually the same person and occasionally not, and the occasionally is the whole risk.
Data · 5 pairs · 2026-07-31
| Confirmed pairs | 5 |
|---|---|
| Both rulebooks read side by side | 5 pairs |
| Wording differs on who wins | 5 pairs |
Next test · planned
What share of a preselected, price-blind pair sample has equivalent settlement across relevant outcomes, with all rejected and uncertain pairs counted?
Research renewal planPayload snapshot 2026-10-12. These figures are frozen; the interactive page reads the same file.
Page export dates do not extend the observation period shown above.
Full report (docs/research/resolution_rules_2026-07-31.md) · Source module (src/resolution_rules.py)
Research tool only: no investment advice, no order placement, no venue affiliation. Public Polymarket and Kalshi data, provided as-is.