Frozen study
Is the binding constraint spread width or quote staleness?
Staleness. On seconds data the loss per fill falls from 362 to 70 cents while the spread earned barely moves.
Adverse selection falls from 362 cents per fill to 70, which is 81 percent of the loss gone. Meanwhile the spread earned barely moves, from 148 to 138 cents. One number collapses and the other stays put, which is what isolates the cause: the problem was never how much spread there is to earn, it was quoting on a picture of the book that had already expired.
Data · 5,413,998 book snapshots · 468 tokens · 5 days · 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-03
| Adverse selection at 120s | -362 cents per fill |
|---|---|
| Adverse selection on seconds data | -70.3 cents per fill |
| Spread earned at 120s | 148.3 cents per fill |
| Spread earned on seconds data | 138.2 cents per fill |
Payload snapshot 2026-08-17. These figures are frozen; the interactive page reads the same file.
Full report (docs/research/mm_pnl_stream-5tage.md) · Source module (src/mm_pnl.py)
Research tool only: no investment advice, no order placement, no venue affiliation. Public Polymarket and Kalshi data, provided as-is.