Historical study
Can that signal be taken as a taker?
No. The edge is worth +0.09 cents per firing against a 2.58 cent round trip.
The signal is worth +0.09 cents per firing before costs. Crossing the spread costs 0.938 cents and the venue fee another 1.646, so the round trip takes 2.58 cents, roughly 30 times what the signal produces. The net is -2.50 cents, and only 3.8 percent of firings end positive. The fee rate is disputed; at the lower published rate the fee falls to 0.988 cents and the net only improves to -1.84, still 22 times the signal. Even the best cut of the signal only reaches +0.21 cents gross, nowhere near the wall.
Data · 205,835 observations · 370,423 book snapshots · 4,489 tokens · 11 days · 2026-07-18 to 2026-07-28
| Gross edge, imbalance | 0.0856 cents per firing |
|---|---|
| Gross edge, best cut | 0.2111 cents per firing |
| Spread cost | 0.9383 cents |
| Fee costat the documented rate; the disputed lower rate puts the same firings at 0.9875 cents | 1.646 cents |
| Round trip total | 2.584 cents |
| Net resultwhat is left after both cost legs; -2.4985 to -1.8402 across the fee-rate dispute | -2.498 cents |
| Firings that end net positive | 3.8 % |
Next test · planned
Does the same rule retain executable net value after category-specific fees, available depth, entry and exit latency, and capital use?
Research renewal planPayload snapshot 2026-10-12. These figures are frozen; the interactive page reads the same file.
Page export dates do not extend the observation period shown above.
Full report (docs/research/orderflow_rest-2026-07.md) · Source module (app/venue_fees.py)
Research tool only: no investment advice, no order placement, no venue affiliation. Public Polymarket and Kalshi data, provided as-is.