Frozen study
Does book imbalance predict which way the price moves?
Yes. 55.5% hit rate at a five-minute horizon with no decision delay, and the pessimistic end of the interval (55.2%) is still above the coin flip.
Out of 205,835 firings the book pointed the right way 55.5 percent of the time, against the 50 percent a coin flip would give. Even the cautious end of the interval sits at 55.2 percent, so this is not a sampling accident. In 35.4 percent of firings the price actually moved at all; the rest sat still.
Data · 205,835 observations · 370,423 book snapshots · 4,489 tokens · 11 days · 2026-07-18 to 2026-07-28
| Hit rateshare of firings where the book moved the predicted way | 55.5 % |
|---|---|
| Wilson lower bound (95%)even the pessimistic end of the interval sits above the coin flip | 55.2 % |
| Firings | 205,835 observations |
| Of those, price actually moved | 35.4 % |
Payload snapshot 2026-08-17. These figures are frozen; the interactive page reads the same file.
Full report (docs/research/orderflow_rest-2026-07.md) · Source module (src/orderflow_study.py)
Research tool only: no investment advice, no order placement, no venue affiliation. Public Polymarket and Kalshi data, provided as-is.