Historical study
How long does such a gap stay open?
Most stayed open at every single moment observed.
Of 5 pairs watched over 11.6 hours, 3 were open at every single moment observed and 1 never opened at all. Nothing in between converged. This describes the recorded observations. It does not prove continuous execution availability or explain why the gaps persisted.
Data · 5 pairs · 2026-07-31
| Pairs watched | 5 |
|---|---|
| Open at every moment observed | 3 pairs |
| Never open at all | 1 pairs |
| Observation window | 11.6 hours |
| Assumed reachabilityhow fast both legs would have to be hit | 5 seconds |
Next test · planned
How long does executable net value persist inside verified joint coverage, with stale quotes and observation gaps explicitly censored?
Research renewal planPayload snapshot 2026-10-12. These figures are frozen; the interactive page reads the same file.
Page export dates do not extend the observation period shown above.
Full report (docs/research/gap_lifetime_2026-07-31.md) · Source module (src/gap_lifetime.py)
Research tool only: no investment advice, no order placement, no venue affiliation. Public Polymarket and Kalshi data, provided as-is.