Research update
Did Polymarket or FedWatch forecast FOMC decisions more accurately at fixed horizons?
Open. The lower Brier score switches by horizon across only five meetings, so there is no overall winner.
Across 5 meetings, mean Brier scores at T-30 were 0.241 for Polymarket and 0.217 for FedWatch. At T-7 they were 0.096 and 0.092; at T-1, 0.037 and 0.055. Lower is better, and the ordering changes with the horizon.
Data · 2026-03-18 to 2026-09-16 (FOMC decisions)
| Polymarket Brier, T-30Lower is better | 0.2407 score |
|---|---|
| FedWatch Brier, T-30Lower is better | 0.2169 score |
| MeetingsSame five at each horizon | 5 decisions |
Payload snapshot 2026-10-12. These figures are frozen; the interactive page reads the same file.
Page export dates do not extend the observation period shown above.
Report (docs/research/fed_comparison_2026-09-24.md) · Source module (app/fed_comparison.py)
Research tool only: no investment advice, no order placement, no venue affiliation. Public Polymarket and Kalshi data, provided as-is.