Frozen study
Are price gaps between the two venues arbitrage?
No, carry. The gaps that survive settle in 2027 or 2028, worth 0.5 to 1.8 percent annualised.
300 markets on one venue were matched against 600 on the other, giving 8 pairs. 3 were thrown out as mismatched questions, leaving 5 usable, of which 3 clear both fee curves. The best is 3.07 cents per share. But those all settle in 2027 or 2028, so the money is locked up for years and the return per year is tiny.
Data · 900 markets · 8 pairs · 2026-07-30
| Pairs matched | 8 |
|---|---|
| Usable after review | 5 |
| Rejected as mismatched | 3 |
| Clear both fee curves | 3 |
| Best net gap | 3.067 cents |
| Median net gap | 1.161 cents |
Payload snapshot 2026-08-17. These figures are frozen; the interactive page reads the same file.
Full report (docs/research/cross_venue_gaps_2026-07-31.md) · Source module (src/cross_venue_gaps.py)
Research tool only: no investment advice, no order placement, no venue affiliation. Public Polymarket and Kalshi data, provided as-is.