Historical study
Are price gaps between the two venues arbitrage?
Executable arbitrage is not established. Surviving quoted gaps settle in 2027 or 2028, worth 0.5 to 1.8 percent annualised under the stated assumptions.
300 markets on one venue were matched against 600 on the other, giving 8 pairs. 3 were thrown out as mismatched questions, leaving 5 usable, of which 3 clear both fee curves. The best is 3.07 cents per share. But those all settle in 2027 or 2028, so the money is locked up for years and the return per year is tiny.
Data · 900 markets · 8 pairs · 2026-07-30
| Pairs matched | 8 |
|---|---|
| Usable after review | 5 |
| Rejected as mismatched | 3 |
| Clear both fee curves | 3 |
| Best net gap | 3.067 cents |
| Median net gap | 1.161 cents |
Next test · planned
Which rule-equivalent pairs retain executable net value at simultaneous depth after both fees, leg risk, financing and settlement?
Research renewal planPayload snapshot 2026-10-12. These figures are frozen; the interactive page reads the same file.
Page export dates do not extend the observation period shown above.
Full report (docs/research/cross_venue_gaps_2026-07-31.md) · Source module (src/cross_venue_gaps.py)
Research tool only: no investment advice, no order placement, no venue affiliation. Public Polymarket and Kalshi data, provided as-is.